Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Debunking Kim Johnson's Chemtrail Analysis

This is to answer:

have read the letters and reviewed the referenced web pages . In so doing, I have viewed a number of photos purporting to be of aircraft spraying the chemical or biological material into the atmosphere.

In summary, there is no evidence that these "chemtrails" are other than expected, normal contrails from jet aircraft that vary in their shapes, duration, and general presentation based on prevailing weather conditions.
Judging from photos alone is not sufficient to tell the difference. But if they really an expert they should notice anomaly like mentioned bellow:
"Contrails are frequently visible at distances as close as 25-35 m behind the aircraft engines. Using an analytical model of ice crystal growth in the exhaust plume, showed that the number density of ice crystals nucleated must be at least about 104cm-3 in order for the contrail to be visible this quickly...... The simulations suggest that fleshly nucleated sulfuric acid/water aerosols could not grow large enough to spontaneously freeze in the time required."

In summary, there is no evidence that these "chemtrails" are other than expected, normal contrails from jet aircraft that vary in their shapes, duration, and general presentation based on prevailing weather conditions
But to be able to persist for hours, the condition required is extreme and will be very rarely happen in reality.

If the atmospheric water content is not consistent with altitude (picture atmospheric "waves" of high water vapor content below a layer of low water vapor content much like waves on the ocean), then a jet will alternately pass through air that allows contrail formation and air that does not. This gives the appearance of a dashed line if the plane is flying at, or near the perpendicular to the waves.
A possible explanation but not the only one. And may not be the real situation.

There were no pictures or evidence that indicated anything other than the above contrail formation phenomena.
Scientist still can not explain why trails can last for hours too many times on an impossible situation.

1 comment:

  1. I think I'll answer just for fun. Whoever Sucahyo is, he (she?) really didn't address the issue in the first comment. The fact is that these pictures were offered as evidence that they were "chemtrails" instead of contrails. I simply said they are normal contrails, and there is nothing in the picture to indicate otherwise. Sucahyo then wanders off quoting an unknown source about ice crystal formation, distance behind aircraft, etc. First, there is no real reference to follow, here, so it is rather hard to take this whole thing in whatever context was intended. Second, the fact is that many contrails do and always have formed at about that distance behind aircraft, depending on the atmospheric conditions (temperature, humidity, and so on.) So, he quotes a model trying to debunk something that has been observed with regular piston driven and jet engines for decades. Who do you believe - an unknown quote with a reference to a model that contradicts reality, or reality? bad for, Sucahyo!

    As far as persistence of contrails - yes, they can persist for a long time. Hours, even. But note that they begin to lose form when there is a long persistence. In fact, they generally act as nucleation trails for the formation of stratus clouds when, again, the atmospheric conditions are right. You can see this very often, especially on winter days when the air is a bit colder in the main vertical flight corridors. Again, this is an observation that has ben around since planes started flying at higher altitudes many decades ago. This is an observation. In science, it is called a fact. What does Sucahyo offer? Simple incredulity, though this happens quite often and, again, has been for many years before his imaginary conspiracy could ever have even begun.

    In his third attempt, he says that this is a possible explanation. Actually, it is the explanation. He has no other except for an imagined "conspiracy," even though this really fun to watch effect has been going on for all those decades - or perhaps he thinks this "conspiracy" started not long after the Wright brothers?

    His last comment has already been addressed. Again, persistence is not something that happens unless the atmospheric conditions are set up for it, and when those conditions are, then the trails simply spread out and merge with others to cause stratus clouds to form. The contrails act as a starter, if you will. They initiate the bigger scale condensation about that which they started. The contrails, themselves, have long since blended into the initiated stratus clouds. Contrails really don't "stick around for hours." They simply start a chain reaction that causes the stratus clouds to build, and these clouds generally form along the contrail paths.

    Good luck on your other endeavors Sucahyo. Let's just hope they do not involve any critical thinking using science methodology!

    M. Kim Johnson