Debunking Kim Johnson's Chemtrail Analysis

This is to answer:
http://www.nmsr.org/mkjrept.htm

have read the letters and reviewed the referenced web pages . In so doing, I have viewed a number of photos purporting to be of aircraft spraying the chemical or biological material into the atmosphere.

In summary, there is no evidence that these "chemtrails" are other than expected, normal contrails from jet aircraft that vary in their shapes, duration, and general presentation based on prevailing weather conditions.

Judging from photos alone is not sufficient to tell the difference. But if they really an expert they should notice anomaly like mentioned bellow:
"Contrails are frequently visible at distances as close as 25-35 m behind the aircraft engines. Using an analytical model of ice crystal growth in the exhaust plume, showed that the number density of ice crystals nucleated must be at least about 104cm-3 in order for the contrail to be visible this quickly...... The simulations suggest that fleshly nucleated sulfuric acid/water aerosols could not grow large enough to spontaneously freeze in the time required."

In summary, there is no evidence that these "chemtrails" are other than expected, normal contrails from jet aircraft that vary in their shapes, duration, and general presentation based on prevailing weather conditions

But to be able to persist for hours, the condition required is extreme and will be very rarely happen in reality.

If the atmospheric water content is not consistent with altitude (picture atmospheric "waves" of high water vapor content below a layer of low water vapor content much like waves on the ocean), then a jet will alternately pass through air that allows contrail formation and air that does not. This gives the appearance of a dashed line if the plane is flying at, or near the perpendicular to the waves.

A possible explanation but not the only one. And may not be the real situation.

There were no pictures or evidence that indicated anything other than the above contrail formation phenomena.

Scientist still can not explain why trails can last for hours too many times on an impossible situation.

Debunking A Pilot's View on Chemtrails

This is to answer argumentation bellow:
http://www.nmsr.org/pilotsvu.htm

If an aircraft were spraying some form of liquid or powdered solid, such as bacterial agents or aluminum particulates as suggested by many theorists, it should be most visible directly behind the trailing edge of the wing (or wherever the nozzles may be located), becoming less visible as it dissipates in the atmosphere in the wake of the plane.

The explanation do not account for the fact that agent exist to modify the behaviour of ice particle, the one that influence the creation of contrails.

Agent that can dissolve or sustain contrail exists. There are many document than mention this agent.

One: video or photographic evidence of aircraft emitting materials in a manner inconsistent with normal contrails, as described above. Two: video evidence of a single aircraft making multiple passes over an area consistent with the formation of the grid pattern. It would be helpful if we could actually see evidence of the spray nozzles being turned on and off during the maneuvers.

It is unfortunate that many who observe it do not have chance to record it. But I do observe it my self.

I seen comb grid, X and V. That can not be explained by wind drift because that happen so fast, in minutes, that the wind must have been supersonic if it is the work of wind.

Descending air currents found in wind shear conditions can carry the aircraft’s exhaust gases to lower elevations and warmer temperatures where the moisture will vaporize, rendering it invisible. The portion of the contrail on the other side of the shear will remain in conditions that support its persistence. This accounts for breaks in visible contrails, which some have theorized indicates the “spray nozzles” have been turned off.

The condition of the sky surely not extreme enough to produce extreme humidity in feets range. And yet we can see trails that last for hours next to a blank. The chance of air pocket having many times more / less humidity is absurd. having 150% RH next to 75% RH should be impossible.

What has happened to our “normal” clouds?

Scientific literature that explain how contrails remove normal clouds exist. Trails that last for hours like chemtrail should be much worse.

The chemicals that exist in contrails are the same ones produced by our automobiles – hydrocarbons, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and various oxides of nitrogen.

Volvo aero magazine mention that aircraft produce more significant danger to the environment because they happen at high latitude.

Are “chemtrails” real?

No scientific document ever mention sampling of trails that last for hours. Many scientific document can not explain the existence of trails that last for hours.

Chemtrails existance still not denied yet by scientific community.

Debungking US Air Force chemtrail hoax

USAF mention chemtrail as hoax, more can be read here:
http://www.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-051013-001.pdf

Contrails can remain visible for very long periods of time with the lifetime a function of the temperature, humidity, winds, and aircraft exhaust characteristics.

Yes, it is possible for contrails to remain visible for very long time, but scientist found that the condition required for trails that last for hours is very very rare.

Scientist often found that trails exist in a condition not suitable for very persistence trails. Some example:

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
"The computed contrail coverage over southeastern Asia is only slightly smaller than that over Europe and North America. Although air traffic is much less extensive over southeastern Asia, this high contrail coverage may result because this region more often has ice-supersaturated air."

The above article speculate that the sky of southeastern Asia has more ice-supersaturated air. However, that speculation is denied by this article:

The Global Distribution of Supersaturation in the Upper Troposphere from the
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder
"In the subtropics, very little supersaturation is seen. Seasonally, supersaturation in the upper tropical troposphere follows major regions of convection (and the supply of humidity).

In middle and high latitudes, there is significant supersaturation near the tropopause, especially in the regions of storm tracks. Highest frequencies in the upper troposphere (Fig. 9) are found in spring and summer. In polar regions (Fig. 10), supersaturation is often seen near the surface as well, particularly in winter, and is quite high over the Antarctic ice cap."

Above article explain that strange things is happening. High contrails coverage is seen on a region with very little supersaturaion and much less air traffic.

Next article explain how the scientist observe contrail that form defying existing knowledge.
Measurements of the growth of the ice budget in a persisting contrail
"In order that the contrail be visible a temperature as much as several degrees bellow the critical temperature is generally required.

In this experiment, as shown in Fig. 5, we actually observed the contrail to form and grow at a temperature several degrees above the critical temperature as defined by appleman, or the laboratory contrail studies of Pillie and Jiusto."

Contrails formed by aircraft may appear to form a grid as the winds disperse the contrails.

Like explained previously, wind can not explain grid that is formed not in sequence. Grid is often seen formed in random order, but will results in almost perfect gap between one trails to another.

Contrails are safe and are a natural phenomenon. They pose no health hazard of any kind.

This is a complete lie. Aircraft exhaust output is not any safer than car exhaust output. Even the aircraft industries acknowledge that jet engine output is not healthy. And Volvoair even mention that aircraft exhaust output may have more impact because they created at very high altitude. Clouds created by toxic substance surely not healthy.

Many people notice the difference of health effects of natural clouds and contrail clouds. Some notice health problem immediately, not waiting for the aerosol to settle down.

I never heard research done on effect of contrail clouds to human.

The bacteria claimed to be DOD developed and patented is actually a common, naturally occurring bacteria.

While the bacteria can occur naturally, the chance of them can be sampled is never mentioned.



One thing that struct me most is how USAF consider contrails to be safe. Previous post explain that contrails and contrail clouds is concluded to be a much stronger promoter of global warming. If government really care about global warming, they should already done something to contrails and contrail clouds. But they have done nothing.

Debunking Jay Reynolds claims

This is to answer chemtrail debunker Jay Renolds.
http://goodsky.homestead.com/files/claims.html

"First, one should be aware that none of these claims can be considered either a hypothesis or a theory, they all fall in the realm of speculation."
Some scientific literature do exist to support some of the claim.


"-Poisonous Substance in Fuel"
One should remember that every jet exhaust produce poisonous substance for human. The difference is in the level. So it is not too important if it contain dangerous substance or not, jet engine output will still be poisonous.


"-Weather Modification & -Solar Radiation Mitigation"
Science literature exist that explain how normal contrails and cirrus cloud it produce have bad effects to the environment. The conclusion is contrails and contrail cirrus modify weather. They increase regional temperature significantly.

Also scientific reference exist about how to induce or to prevent rain with cloud seeding method. It is a known idea and had been experimented. So, weather modification is not an impossible option.


"In my words, "Contrails don't cause weather, weather causes contrails.""
Above is a wrong conclusion, without aeroplane, there would be no contrails. Contrails is man made, weather can not cause contrails. Weather is only a supporting factor, but this may be wrong too because trails also observed on unfavorable weather. Even some scientist puzzled by the existance of trails that last for hours in an impossible condition.

See my other post for reference.


"Normal persistent contrails can and do provide cirrus clouds which can block some sunlight and UV radiation, but their global coverage is miniscule."
Trails is severe problem. Many people report with photos and videos showing how the sky to become fully covered with clouds or trails dense enough to block the sun. And blocking sun for days can have severe health effects.


"-Global Warming Mitigation"
Some scientific reference mention how most scientist agree that contrails and contrail cirrus promote regional warming. And also this is concluded on observation that include only a handfull of trails in the sky. Should the observation is done during fully covered sky with trails, scientist would conclude that they promote global warming significantly too.

Even ordinary contrails have significant contribution to global warming. It is not important to differentiate chemtrail and contrails. None is harmless.

"-Visual Obscuration"
Proof exists that show sky is completely covered by trails and cloud created by the trails. They can last for days and even weeks. Refuting te possibility of hiding activity is also speculation.


Trails currently unregulated. Trails can be regulated by monitoring each plane activity and rerouting flight. It is possible to do and do not compromise the safety of flight.

Seeing how tight the government regulate ground vehicle, the none existance regulation on contrails looks like a miracle. Police should chase after the plane that produce trails like how they chase us when our car produce smoke.

Debunking contrailscience contrails grid

Grid formation of trails is often used to indicate that the trails is sprayed deliberately. Chemtrail debunker do not leave this alone, like metioned bellow:
http://contrailscience.com/contrail-grids-are-not-chemtrail-grids/

The link explained that grid happen because of the wind. The jetplane passing the same route but the wind blow the previous trail to previous position. Creating many trail that form a grid.

The explanation look logical, however, it leave out these phenomena:

1. Some people observed that the grid is made in random order. The trails is not sprayed in sequence but in random order. The next trails is always fill the sky that never been sprayed before with precision. With only this it is enough to dispell wind blowing trails theory, but there is more.

2. The trails is created very fast, in minutes. The wind should never has time to move the trails fast enough.

3. Grid still observed on no wind condition. It is often seen that the trails do not move position. If grid is formed by the wind then the trails should be moving. But the grid still seen even if the trails stay at their location. The jetplane that spraying the trails definitely use different route.

4. The grid also seen to has even distance between one trail to the others. This precision can only happen if the spraying is done deliberately.

5. The wind theory can not explain why there are criss crossing trails.


All the above reason show that wind can not be used to explain the grid formed by the trails. Indicating that the spraying may indeed deliberate.

Debunking contrailscience trails age

Trails age has become the argumentation key point between chemtrail believer and chemtrail nay sayer. The debunker often use the natural life expectancy of ice. Like mentioned bellow:
http://contrailscience.com/how-long-do-contrails-last/

However, trails from jet plane is not natural. Many science literature only mention probable life expectancy of trails of under 30 minutes. Trails that has life of hours is never been observed in situ, always from satellite observation. And trails that last for hours never been sampled to my knowledge.

This is example of observation:

On the Transition of Contrails into Cirrus Clouds

Following different jet aircraft during more than 60 occasions, contrails older than about 10–15 min could only be identified and sampled in very few cases. This raises the question whether very low concentrations of upper-tropospheric ice crystals frequently occur under conditions that are also favorable for contrails to form and persist.

People who often see chemtrails crisscrossing the sky would find this amusing, because they often report many trails last for many hours. Those scientist may never get trails that last for hours if they kept following the plane. Or they would not be allowed to follow.....


Trails of jet plane should never be compared with other natural phenomena. Water is only a part of what jet engine exhaust produce. There are other thing that can alter the way the contrails produced.

ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS CIVIL AVIATION, Contrails

Aircraft engines emit water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), small amounts of nitrogen oxides (NOx), hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, sulfur gases, and soot and metal particles formed by the high-temperature combustion of jet fuel during flight. Of these emittants, only water vapor is necessary for contrail formation. Sulfur gases are also of potential interest because they lead to the formation of small particles. Particles suitable for water droplet formation are necessary for contrail formation. Initial contrail particles, however, can either be already present in the atmosphere or formed in the exhaust gas.

Trails from unnatural sources should never be explained by something from natural sources. The explanation from the link above should never be considered real.

What scientist can model is contrails that last for 30 minutes at most. Contrails that last for hours is impossible for them. They can not simulate or explain it using only jet engine exhaust output.

This should bring enough hint that hourly persistent contrails may not be contrails at all.

Also remember that the photos posted on contrailscience website may not be the photos of plane that actually produce trails that last hours. What being shown as what you see, may not be the same thing as what you actually see at all.

Debunking contrailscience broken contrails

People often see the trails of jetplane to be suddenly on and off. Many people use this as example that the trails is a deliberate spraying.

Chemtrail debunker consider this only as a results of sudden atmospheric change. Like mentioned bellow:
http://contrailscience.com/contrail-gaps-and-other-questions/

The explanation seems reasonable. But still leave a lot of question:

1. Atmosphere is random, but why the trails is perfectly on and perfectly off if it is caused by supposed to be random atmospheric condition?

A natural sky whould produce random level of humidity. If there is no wind, extreme humidity difference should not exist. We should expect to see gradual change to the trails.

But that is not what many people see. Many people see the trails to be very very uniform. The sudden cut is then continue with another very very uniform trails. If trails is created because of humidity, this would never happen.


2. Some people also observe that there are two trails with different place of broken trails. This defeat the theory that trails interrupted because of different humidity at different level of height.

If the sky is completely random at that time then we should see random broken trails every where, but many people don't see this.

If the sky completely homogen at that time then we should see two broken trails happen at the same place, but many people don't see this.



In short, this is not simple. People or even scientist observe effect can not be explained with atmospheric change of humidity.